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We project that global energy-related CO2 emissions from consumption of coal, liquid fuels, and natural gas will increase over the next 30 years across most of the cases we analyzed in our International Energy Outlook 2023 (IEO2023).
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U.S. coal-related CO2 emissions decreased by 7%, or 68 million metric tons (MMmt), in 2022 relative to 2021. This decrease was largely due to an 8% decline in coal-fired power generation because of retiring coal-fired generating capacity. Changes in electricity generation sources decreased the carbon intensity of electricity by 4% in the United States in 2022 as growing natural gas-fired and renewable energy resources and a coal supply shortage contributed to the lower coal-related emissions.
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We forecast the U.S. energy sector to emit about 4,790 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) in 2023, a 3% decrease from 2022. Much of this decline results from lower electricity generation from coal-fired power plants due to higher generation from renewable sources such as solar power. We expect this trend to continue into 2024, with CO2 emissions declining 1% relative to 2023.
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Sales of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery-electric vehicles (BEV) in the United States rose to 17.7% of new light-duty vehicle sales in third-quarter 2023, according to data from Wards Intelligence. Sales of hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and BEVs have accounted for 15.8% of all new light-duty vehicle sales in the United States so far this year, compared with 12.3% in 2022 and 8.5% in 2021.
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On November 20, 2023, the Monday before Thanksgiving, the retail price of regular gasoline averaged $3.29 per gallon (gal) across the United States, 10% less than the same time last year. After adjusting for inflation (real terms), retail gasoline prices this Thanksgiving weekend are 13% lower than last year, but they remain higher than pre-pandemic levels for the third year. This Thanksgiving, the American Automotive Association (AAA) forecasts 55 million people will travel 50 miles or more for the Thanksgiving holiday, a 2% increase compared with 2022.
